HSBC Indonesia Economy & Investment outlook 2026

Pranjul Bhandari, Managing Director, Chief India Economist and Macro Strategist, and ASEAN Economist at HSBC Global, highlighted potential moderation across several sectors, particularly exports. The strong export performance in 2025 was partly driven by accelerated shipments amid concerns over higher global tariffs, and therefore may not fully represent a sustainable trend. This dynamic could place pressure on export performance in 2026 and warrants careful monitoring.

Nevertheless, HSBC views government policy as likely to remain accommodative to support sustainable economic growth throughout 2026. With improving nominal GDP prospects, the government is assessed to have sufficient fiscal space to increase spending while remaining within budget deficit limits. On the monetary front, Bank Indonesia is seen to have room to continue policy easing, subject to exchange rate stability and movements in the US dollar. In this context, household consumption remains the primary pillar of national economic growth, with further strengthening dependent on wage growth and job creation.